Northern Ireland Quarterly Index of Services
Introduction
The quarterly Index of Services (IOS) provides a timely indicator of
change in output within the private sector services industries in
Northern Ireland (NI). Included in this publication is the experimental
Retail Sales Index (RSI) which refers to SIC 47 (Retail trade, except of
motor vehicles and motorcycles) and is a subset of IOS. Output estimates
are calculated from the IOS aspect of the Quarterly Business Survey
(QBS). The IOS has a sample size of approximately 3,600 businesses,
covering all private sector services businesses with 100 or more
employees and a representative sample of smaller businesses. The latest
quarterly estimates are compared to revised Quarter 1 2025 and Quarter 2
2024 estimates.
Key Points
-
The NI IOS increased by 2.4% over the quarter (April - June) to reach a new series high. NI IOS increased by 3.4% over the year and 2.4% on a rolling four quarter basis.
-
UK output increased by 0.3% over the quarter to reach a UK series high, and 1.2% over the year.
-
NI services output is now 13.5% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while UK services output is 6.0% above its Quarter 4 2019 level.
-
NI services output is 44.6% higher than the series low point (Quarter 2 2020).
-
Over the quarter, the Business services and finance sector increased by 3.2%, the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sectorincreased by 1.2%, the Other services sector increased by 6.1%and the Transport, storage, information and communications sectorincreased by 0.1%).
- Over the year the Business services and finance sector increased by 0.9% and the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector increased by 5.5%. In contrast a decrease was seen in the Other services sector (0.6%) and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (0.3%).
- NI RSI increased by 4.7% over the quarter, by 12.1% over the year, and by 7.7% on a rolling four quarter basis.
- NI RSI is now 7.5% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while GB retail services output remains 2.8% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
Summary of Index of Services
Change in Index of Services
The seasonally adjusted estimate for the NI IOS for Quarter 2 2025
showed:
-
an increase of 2.4% over the quarter from the Quarter 1 2025 revised estimate;
-
an increase of 3.4% over the year from the Quarter 2 2024 revised estimate; and
- an increase of 2.4% when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters.
Commentary
NI services sector output increased over the second quarter of
2025 to reach a new series high. Services sector output increased by
2.4% over the quarter and 3.4% over the year. Output in the NI services
sector is 44.6% higher than the series low seen in Quarter 2 2020.
Both the NI and UK indices have followed an upward trend since Quarter 1
2015, with the exception of the Coronavirus pandemic period beginning in
Quarter 1 2020. The two series showed a similar level of decline in
Quarter 1 2020 and have followed a similar trend in the subsequent
recovery, with the NI index now outperforming the UK index. The NI Index
of Services is now 13.5% above its pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4
2019, and the UK IOS is 6.0% above its pre-pandemic level.
Figure 1.2 NI IOS Quarterly, Annual and Rolling Four Quarter Changes at sector level
Note: Each broad sector index and the overall IOS index are seasonally adjusted independently of each other. It is not appropriate to directly compare the changes in the broad sectors to the changes in the overall IOS index.
Services Output by Sector
2.1 Business services and finance sector
(SIC 07 Section KLMN) - (weight = 40.8% of IOS):
includes
financial service activities, real estate activities, specialised
professional, scientific and technical activities and a variety of
activities that support general business operations.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show an increase of 3.2% over the quarter and an increase of 0.9% over the year and an increase of 0.8% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show an increase of 0.1% over the quarter and an increase of 0.6% over the year and an increase of 1.1% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output is 32.1% above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.
-
UK output is in Quarter 2 2025 is at a series high.
Figure 2.1 Business services and finance sector, NI & UK, Q2 2015 – Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022 = 100
The UK index in the Business services and finance sector
generally outperformed the NI index between 2015 and Quarter 2 2022. NI
output saw a larger decline in 2020 than UK output and reached a series
low in Quarter 2 2020. Subsequent recovery has seen the NI index
outperform the UK series and reach a ten year high in Quarter 4
2024.
2.2 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector
(SIC 07 Section GI) – (weight = 32.4% of IOS):
includes the
wholesale and retail sale and the supply of services incidental to the
sale of merchandise as well as the repair of motor vehicles and
motorcycles. This sector also includes the provision of short-stay
accommodation for visitors and the provision of complete meals and
drinks fit for immediate consumption.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show an increase of 1.2% over the quarter and an increase of 5.5% over the year and an increase of 4.5% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show a decrease of 0.2% over the quarter and an increase of 0.8% over the year and an increase of 0.6% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output in Quarter 2 2025 is 37.0% higher than the series low (Quarter 2 2020) and is at a series high.
Figure 2.2 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector, NI & UK, Q2 2015 – Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022 = 100
The NI and UK indices followed a similar trend in this sector
until Quarter 1 2020 when the UK series saw a greater decrease than the
NI series. Subsequent recovery has seen the series diverge slightly
after Quarter 4 2022, with NI output showing an increasing trend and UK
output remaining relatively consistent. NI output in this sector reached
a new series high in Quarter 2 2025 and is now 9.1% above the
pre-pandemic level. In Quarter 2 2025 the UK index is 7.7% lower than
the series high seen in Quarter 3 2017 and is now 4.5% below its
pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.
2.3 Other services sector
(SIC 07 Section PQRS) - (weight 15.1% of IOS):
includes other
activities not covered elsewhere - education, health & social work,
arts, entertainment and recreation and other services.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show an increase of 6.1% over the quarter and a decrease of 0.6% over the year and a decrease of 3.0% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output in Quarter 2 2025 is 1.9% lower than the series high seen in Quarter 3 2023.
-
NI output in Quarter 2 2025 is 85.8% above the series low seen in Quarter 2 2020.
Figure 2.3 Other services sector, NI, Q2 2015 - Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022 = 100
The UK
does not publish results on the same basis as NI so there are no UK
results to compare against.
The NI index followed a consistent trend in this sector between
Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 4 2019. The index fell to a series low in
Quarter 2 2020 and has since recovered to reach a series high in Quarter
3 2023. Quarter 2 2025 saw a large increase from the downward trend that
followed after Q3 2023, and output is now 9.3% above the pre-pandemic
level.
2.4 Transport, storage, information and communications sector
(SIC 07 Section HJ) - (weight 11.7% of IOS):
includes the
provision of passenger or freight transport and associated activities,
postal and courier activities, the production and distribution of
information and cultural products, as well as data or communications,
information technology activities and the processing of data and other
information service activities.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show an increase of 0.1% over the quarter and a decrease of 0.3% over the year and a decrease of 1.9% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show an increase of 1.5% over the quarter and an increase of 3.3% over the year and an increase of 4.0% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output is now 3.2% below the series high seen in Quarter 1 2022 while UK output is at a series high.
-
NI output in Quarter 2 2025 is 39.3% above the ten year low seen in Quarter 2 2020.
Figure 2.4 Transport, storage, information and communications, NI & UK, Q2 2015 - Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022 = 100
The NI and UK indices were both on an upward trend in the
Transport, storage, information and communications sector throughout the
series until the decline seen in Quarter 2 2020. Since then both the NI
and UK indices have recovered and are now above the pre-pandemic levels
seen in Quarter 4 2019, with the NI index reaching a series high in
Quarter 1 2022, and the UK index reaching a series high in Quarter 2
2025. The NI index is now 12.1% above the pre-pandemic level seen in
Quarter 4 2019, while the UK index is 16.0% above its Quarter 4 2019
level.
Retail Sales Index
The quarterly RSI provides a timely indicator of change in
output within the private retail service industries in Northern Ireland
(NI). The retail sales sector refers to SIC 47 (Retail trade, except of
motor vehicles and motorcycles) and is a subset of the Index of Services
(IOS) aspect of the Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). The Northern
Ireland RSI is an “official statistic in development”, previously called
an “Experimental Statistic”, as it continues to be reviewed and undergo
development.
Key Points
-
Retail output in NI an increase by 4.7% over the quarter to Quarter 2 2025 and an increase by 12.1% over the year.
-
GB RSI output saw an increase of 0.3% over the quarter and an increase of 0.9% over the year.
-
NI RSI output is now 7.5% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while GB RSI output is 2.8% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
- When the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, NI RSI increased by 7.7% and the GB RSI increased by 0.9%.
- NI RSI output is at a new series high.
- NI RSI output is 18.5% higher than the series low (Quarter 1 2021).
Summary of the Retail Sales Index
-
The seasonally adjusted estimate for NI RSI output for Quarter 2 2025 show an increase of 4.7% over the quarter and an increase of 12.1% over the year and an increase of 7.7% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The seasonally adjusted estimate for GB RSI output for Quarter 2 2025 show an increase of 0.3% over the quarter and an increase of 0.9% over the year and an increase of 0.9% on a rolling four quarters basis.
Figure 3.1 RSI, NI & GB, Q1 2014 – Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022=100
The NI RSI
series begins in 2014
Commentary
The NI and GB Retail indices followed the same general upward
trend between Quarter 1 2014 and Quarter 2 2019. The GB index then saw a
greater level of decline in Quarter 2 2020 than the NI index but has
subsequently recovered 9.8% to reach its current level. In comparison
the NI index reached a series low in Quarter 1 2021 but has subsequently
recovered 18.5% to reach its current level.
Figure 3.2 NI and GB RSI Quarterly, Annual and Rolling Four Quarter Changes
Background Notes
Further Information Data published within this bulletin is available
to download from our
website
and the new NISRA
Data
Portal.
Detailed
background
information documents and
methodology
information have also been published online for users to refer to for
more detailed information on the IOS.
| Quarter | Change | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter 3 2024 | Updated 2022 GVA Reference Year | The UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2024 was published on 31 October 2024. For the last three years the reference year and base year have remained at 2019 due to the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the economy. In line with Blue Book 2024 we have moved the base year on to 2022 as part of our production process. Because the base year has been moved forward over a longer time period than usual, the revisions to volume estimates as a result of changing base years may be larger than usual. |
| Quarter 2 2025 | Revised 2022 GVA | Figures in this publication have been weighted using the revised Northern Ireland 2022 GVA which became available on 17 April 2025. |
| Quarter 2 2025 | Seasonal Adjustment Review | Following the seasonal adjustment review conducted in May 2025, changes have been made to some regressors and models used to seasonally adjust time series using X13 ARIMA SEATS. |
Index of tables
All tables below can be found in IOS tables.
1.1 IOS, NI & UK
2.1 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of
motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service – SIC07
Sections G & I, NI and UK
2.2 Business services and finance –
SIC07 Sections K-N, NI and UK
2.3 Other services – SIC07 Sections
P-S, NI only
2.4 Transport, storage, information & communication
– SIC07 Sections H & J, NI and UK
3.1 IOS percentage change, NI
and UK
3.2 IOS percentage change by Broad Industry Group, NI
3.3
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles;
accommodation and food service percentage change, NI and UK
3.4
Business services and finance percentage change, NI and UK
3.5 Other
services percentage change, NI only
3.6 Transport, storage,
information & communication percentage change, NI and UK
3.7 IOS
– Quarterly, Annual and Rolling Annual average changes by sector, NI
only
3.8 NI IOS by Broad Sector – Annual Average
4.1 Retail
Sales Index, NI and GB
4.2 NI Retail Sales index and Index of
Services
4.3 Retail Sales Index percentage change, NI and GB
4.4
NI Retail Sales Index - Quarterly, annual and rolling average change
4.5 NI Retail Sales Index - Annual Average
Accredited Official Statistics
Accredited
official statistics are a sub-set of official statistics that have
been independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and
confirmed as complying with the standards of trustworthiness, quality,
and value in the
Code
of Practice for Statistics. Accredited official statistics are
called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service
Act 2007.
These accredited official statistics, the quarterly
Index of Services (IOS), were
independently
reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in August 2011.
They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in
the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited
official statistics’.
The Northern Ireland RSI is an “official
statistic in development”, previously called an “Experimental
Statistic”, as it continues to be reviewed and undergo development.
Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics
Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and
value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of
official statistics should adhere to. You are welcome to contact us
directly with any comments about how we meet these standards.
Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR.
Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued
to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics and have made the
following improvements:
• Removed pre-release access to enhance
trustworthiness and also brought the publication date forward as a
result;
• Reduced business burden by offering the option of online
data returns.
• Improved accessibility of Index of Services
Statistics by amending the format and structure of reports in line with
accessibility regulations.
•
Consulted
users on streamlining the IOS statistical bulletin.
Contact Details
Published by: Economic and Labour Market Statistics Branch
Lead Statistician: Jude Curran
Email: economicstats@nisra.gov.uk
Accessibility contact
Please contact Dissemination Branch for assistance with accessibility requirements or alternative formats. Contact details are:
Email: info@nisra.gov.uk
Telephone: +44 (0)300 200 7836
Dissemination Branch
NISRA
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Stranmillis Court
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