Northern Ireland Quarterly Index of Production
Introduction
The quarterly Index of Production (IOP) provides a timely indicator
of growth in the output of the production industries in Northern Ireland
(NI). Output estimates are calculated from the IOP aspect of the
Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). The IOP has a sample size of
approximately 1,200 covering all production businesses with 40 or more
employees and a representative sample of smaller businesses. The latest
quarterly estimates are compared to revised Quarter 1 2025 and Quarter 2
2024 estimates.
Key Points
-
The NI IOP increased by 1.2% over the quarter (April - June) and increased by 3.2% over the year.
-
The UK IOP decreased by 0.3% over the quarter and increased by 0.3% over the year.
-
When the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, the NI production sector increased by 2.3% while the UK production sector decreased by 0.7%.
-
The NI IOP is 5.7% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019, while the UK IOP remains 8.6% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
-
Over the quarter, the increase in NI production output was driven by a rise in all four main sectors - Manufacturing (2.1%), Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (1.6%), Water supply, sewerage and waste management (Inc. recycling) (0.4%) and Mining and quarrying (1.1%).
- Over the year the increase in NI production output was driven by a rise in all four main sectors – Manufacturing (4.3%), Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 1.3%), Water supply, sewerage and waste management (Inc. recycling) (3.8%), and Mining and quarrying (12.1%).
Summary of Index of Production
Change in IOP
The seasonally adjusted estimate for the NI IOP for Quarter 2
2025 showed:
-
an increase of 1.2% over the quarter from the Quarter 1 2025 revised estimate;
-
an increase of 3.2% over the year from the Quarter 2 2024 revised estimate; and
- an increase of 2.3% when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters.
Commentary
Output in the NI Production sector increased by 1.2% in real
terms over the second quarter of 2025. The UK Production sector
decreased by 0.3% over the same period. Over the year there was an
increase in NI output of 3.2% and an increase in the UK series (0.3%).
NI output has seen increases in four of the last five quarters to
Quarter 2 2025.
The NI and UK series have followed broadly
similar trends, although the NI index saw a steeper decline over the
Covid-19 pandemic period. The NI IOP fell to its series low in Quarter 2
2020 but has since recovered to be 5.7% above the pre-pandemic level
seen in Quarter 4 2019. In contrast, the UK index remains 8.6% below its
pre-pandemic level.
In Quarter 2 2025 NI output is 34.2% above
the series low (Quarter 2 2020) but remains 4.4% below the series high
(Quarter 4 2007).
Figure 1.2 NI IOP Quarterly, Annual and Rolling Four Quarter Changes at sector level This Quarter
Note: Each broad sector index and the overall IOP index are seasonally adjusted independently of each other. It is not appropriate to directly compare the changes in the broad sectors to the changes in the overall IOP index.
The Production sector is dominated by Manufacturing, which accounts
for approximately 79.0% of total production Gross Value Added (GVA) at
2022 prices. It is comprised of six subsectors, as shown in Figure 1.3.
Figure 1.3 IOP sector split (based on 2022 GVA)
Note: All GVA weights for sectors and subsectors are shown as
a percentage of total IOP.
Further information on these subsectors is available in the IOP Tables.
Production Output by Sector
2.1 Manufacturing
Manufacturing sector (SIC07 Section C) - (weight = 79.0% of IOP)
Manufacturing involves the transformation of materials into new products
(outputs).
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show an increase of 2.1% over the quarter and 4.3% over the year and 3.0% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 0.2% over the quarter,1.0% over the year and 0.0% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output is 4.1% below the ten year high seen in Quarter 1 2017.
-
NI output is 34.9% above the series low recorded in Quarter 2 2020.
Figure 2.1 Manufacturing sector, NI & UK, Q2 2015 – Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022 = 100
The UK and NI indices have had a broadly similar trend in the
Manufacturing sector since Quarter 3 2017. The NI index fell to a series
low in Quarter 2 2020 which was also a ten year low for the UK index.
Following the recovery period, the UK index has been generally
outperforming the NI series. In Quarter 2 2025 NI Manufacturing was 6.1%
above the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while the UK
Manufacturing index was 1.7% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
2.2 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (SIC07 Section D)
(weight = 9.7% of IOP)
This sector includes the activity of
providing electric power, natural gas, steam, hot water and the like
through a permanent infrastructure (network) of lines, mains and pipes.
Also included is its distribution in industrial parks or residential
buildings. Therefore, the operation of electric and gas utilities are
included.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 1.6% over the quarter and 1.3% over the year and a decrease of 1.3% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The seasonally adjusted figures for the UK show decreases of 6.8% over the quarter, 6.3% over the year and 1.3% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The Quarter 2 2025 NI estimate is 20.7% below the ten year high recorded in Quarter 4 2021.
-
NI output is 2.5% above the series low recorded in Quarter 3 2024.
Figure 2.2 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, NI & UK, Q2 2015 – Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022 = 100
The NI index remained relatively stable between Quarter 2 2015
and Quarter 2 2019 while, during the same period, the UK index showed
greater variation. NI output has been on a downward trend since the ten
year high seen in Quarter 4 2021, reaching a series low in Quarter 3
2024. NI output has since recovered from this low point. NI output in
this sector is 12.0% below the pre-pandemic level of Quarter 4 2019,
while UK output is 33.4% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
2.3 Water supply, sewage and waste management (Inc. recycling)
Water supply, sewerage, and waste management (Inc. recycling) (SIC07
Section E) (weight = 9.1% of IOP)
This section covers activities
related to the management (including collection, treatment and disposal)
of various forms of waste, such as solid or non-solid industrial or
household waste, as well as contaminated sites. Activities of water
supply are also grouped in this section since they are often carried out
in connection with, or by units also engaged in, the treatment of
sewage.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 0.4% over the quarter and 3.8% over the year and a decrease of 0.7% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 2.1% over the quarter and 7.3% over the year and 3.7% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The NI estimate is 7.1% below the series high seen in Quarter 2 2022.
-
NI output is 53.2% above the ten year low recorded in Quarter 2 2020.
Figure 2.3 Water supply, sewage and waste management (Inc. recycling), NI & UK, Q2 2015 - Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022 = 100
The UK index has generally been outperforming the NI index in
this sector since Quarter 2 2015. NI output saw a substantially larger
decrease in 2020 than UK output but subsequently recovered to reach a
series high in Quarter 2 2022. Since then, NI output has been on a
downward trend but has now had two consecutive quarters of growth and is
15.2% above it’s Quarter 4 2019 pre-pandemic level. The UK series is
9.0% above its Quarter 4 2019 level.
2.4 Mining and Quarrying
Mining and quarrying (SIC07 Section B) (weight = 2.2% of IOP)
This section covers the extraction of minerals occurring naturally as
solids (coal and ores), liquids (petroleum) or gases (natural gas).
Extraction can be achieved by different methods such as underground or
surface mining, well operation, seabed mining, etc.
-
The NI seasonally adjusted figures show increases of 1.1% over the quarter and 12.1% over the year and 2.8% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
The UK seasonally adjusted figures reached a series low in Quarter 2 2025 and showed a decrease of 0.3% over the quarter and 4.5% over the year and 7.6% on a rolling four quarters basis.
-
NI output is 22.8% below the series high recorded in Quarter 1 2021.
-
NI output is 50.3% above its ten year low (Quarter 2 2020).
Figure 2.4 Mining and quarrying, NI & UK, Q2 2015 - Q2 2025
Figures are indexed to 2022 = 100
Both the NI and the UK indices have shown volatility in the
Mining and quarrying sector. The UK generally performed better than NI
in this sector until Quarter 1 2021. In NI this sector is currently
19.9% above the pre-pandemic level reported in Quarter 4 2019, whereas
the UK sector is 39.4% below its Quarter 4 2019 level and has dropped to
a new series low.
Background Notes
Further Information Data published within this bulletin is available
to download from our
website
and the new NISRA
Data
Portal.
Detailed
background
information documents and
methodology
information have also been published online for users to refer to for
more detailed information on the IOP.
| Quarter | Change | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter 3 2024 | Updated 2022 GVA Reference Year | The UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2024 was published on 31 October 2024. For the last three years the reference year and base year have remained at 2019 due to the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the economy. In line with Blue Book 2024 we have moved the base year on to 2022 as part of our production process. Because the base year has been moved forward over a longer time period than usual, the revisions to volume estimates as a result of changing base years may be larger than usual. |
| Quarter 2 2025 | Revised 2022 GVA | Figures in this publication have been weighted using the revised Northern Ireland 2022 GVA which became available on 17 April 2025. |
| Quarter 2 2025 | Seasonal Adjustment Review | Following the seasonal adjustment review conducted in May 2025, changes have been made to some regressors and models used to seasonally adjust time series using X13 ARIMA SEATS. |
Index of tables
All tables below can be found in IOP tables.
1.1 IOP, NI & UK
2.1 Manufacturing sector output, NI &
UK
2.2 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, NI &
UK
2.3 Water supply, sewerage and waste management (Inc. recycling),
NI & UK
2.4 Mining and quarrying output, NI & UK
3 Index
of Production percentage change by Broad Industry Group, NI
4.1
Engineering and allied industries, NI & UK
4.2 Total Other
Manufacturing, NI & UK
4.3 Food products, beverages and tobacco,
NI & UK
4.4 Basic and fabricated metal products, NI & UK
4.5 Manufacturing of chemical and pharmaceutical products, NI &
UK
4.6 Textiles, leather and related products, NI & UK
5 NI
Market Sector Goods
6.1 IOP by Market Sector Goods (annual data)
6.2 IOP by Market Sector Goods percentage change, NI
6.3 IOP –
Quarterly, annual and rolling annual average changes by sector, NI
6.4 NI Manufacturing Index – Quarterly
6.5 NI Manufacturing Index -
Annual Average
6.6 NI IOP by Manufacturing Broad Sub-sectors –
Quarterly
6.7 NI IOP by Manufacturing Broad Sub-sectors - Annual
Average
Accredited Official Statistics
Accredited
official statistics are a sub-set of official statistics that have
been independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation and
confirmed as complying with the standards of trustworthiness, quality,
and value in the
Code
of Practice for Statistics. Accredited official statistics are
called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service
Act 2007.
These accredited official statistics, the quarterly
Index of Production (IOP), were
independently
reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in August 2011.
They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in
the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited
official statistics’.
Our statistical practice is regulated by
the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of
trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for
Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.
You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we
meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR.
Since the assessment by the UK Statistics Authority, we have continued
to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics and have made the
following improvements:
• Removed pre-release access to enhance
trustworthiness and also brought the publication date forward as a
result;
• Reduced business burden by offering the option of online
data returns.
• Improved accessibility of Index of Production
Statistics by amending the format and structure of reports in line with
accessibility regulations.
•
Consulted
users on streamlining the IOP statistical bulletin.
Contact Details
Published by: Economic and Labour Market Statistics Branch
Lead Statistician: Stephanie Bruce
Email: economicstats@nisra.gov.uk
Accessibility contact
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Email: info@nisra.gov.uk
Telephone: +44 (0)300 200 7836
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