2021-based Interim Population Projections for Northern Ireland

Date published: 30 January 2024


National projections by sex and single year of age are produced for the UK and each of the UK constituent countries by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). National projections provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of Northern Ireland.


Key Findings:


  1. Over the 25 years from mid-2021 to mid-2046 the population of Northern Ireland is projected to increase to 2.003 million.
  2. The projected population change for Northern Ireland is lower than the figure for the UK as a whole. The population of the UK is projected to grow by 14.2% to mid-2046, compared with 5.1% for Northern Ireland. If these projections were realised, Northern Ireland’s share of the UK population would fall from 2.8% in mid-2021 to 2.6% by mid-2046.
  3. Northern Ireland’s population is projected to age. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to grow by 49.2% by mid-2046. The number of children is projected to fall by 14.6%. The population aged 16-64 is projected to fall slightly by 0.6%.
  4. More people are projected to move to Northern Ireland than leave each year. However, there are projected to be more deaths than births each year from 2033, and the gap between births and deaths is projected to widen.

Further information:

National population projections: 2021-based interim including data for Northern Ireland.