2022-based Population Projections for Northern Ireland
Date published:
Population Projections for Northern Ireland
National population projections are produced routinely or the UK and each of the UK constituent countries by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of the National Statistician and the Registrars General of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Principle projections are produced based on long-term assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels, with variant projection being produced from various alternative assumptions – usually in the form of high/low variants. This release for Northern Ireland coincides with releases for England, Wales and Scotland also published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and National Records Scotland (NRS).
The Northern Ireland population is projected to rise to 1.95 million in mid-2033 before falling to 1.93 million in mid-2047. This is an increase of 1.1 per cent over the 25 years from mid-2022.
The projections between mid-2022 and mid-2047 also point to:
- Net migration is projected to cause a population increase of 53,800 while natural change is projected to cause a population decrease of 32,400 people between mid-2022 and mid-2047. There are 463,500 projected births and 495,900 projected deaths over the period.
- The projections show the continuing ageing of the Northern Ireland population. The population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 49.6 per cent between mid-2022 and mid-2047. Likewise, the population aged 85 and over is projected to increase by 122.2 per cent over the same period.
- By mid-2027, there is projected to be more people aged 65 and over (377,700 people) than children (aged 0-15) (366,700 people) in Northern Ireland.
- Northern Ireland is projected to have the lowest population growth (1.1 per cent) between mid-2022 and mid-2047 across the UK. England is projected to have the highest population growth (14.5 per cent), followed by Wales (10.3 per cent), then Scotland (6.2 per cent).
- These latest projections result in population figures that are generally lower than those reported in the 2021-based interim projections. By mid-2047, it is projected that there will be 71,700 (3.6 per cent) less people in Northern Ireland than previously projected in mid-2021.
Further information including statistical tables and an infographic is available at: /publications/2022-based-population-projections-northern-ireland