Northern Ireland population projected to peak at 1.94 million in 2031 before declining
Date published:
The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) has today published new 2024-based population projections for Northern Ireland, which update the recent 2022-based population projections released in January last year.
The new results show a similar pattern to previously projected. However, after an initial period of growth, the population here is projected to start to decline two years earlier than previously reported (2031 rather than 2033). The decline is projected to begin from a lower peak of 1.94 million in 2031 (previously projected to be 1.95 million in 2033).
These projections result in population figures that are generally lower than those reported in the 2022-based projections. By mid-2049, it is projected that there will be 1.91 million people here - 18,100 (0.9%) less than previously projected.
This difference is driven by changes in the projected number of births, deaths and migration. Based on current and past demographic behaviours and trends, these new projections assume lower levels of international migration and lower future fertility than in the previous projections. For example, deaths are projected to exceed the number of births by mid-2030, one year earlier than previously projected. In addition, this negative natural change (more deaths than births) is projected to exceed net migration from 2031 onwards – two years earlier than previously projected.
Net migration is projected to cause a population increase of 35,000 over the 25 years between 2024 and 2049 (an average of 1,400 more people per year). Over the same period, negative natural change is projected to cause a population decrease of 54,200 people (an average of 2,200 less people per year).
The projections also show the continuing ageing of the Northern Ireland population. The population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by almost half (44.7%) over the 25 year projection period. Likewise, the population aged 85 and over is projected to more than double (increasing by 126.1%) over the same period. As soon as next year (i.e. mid-2027), there is projected to be more people aged 65 and over (375,600 people) than children aged 0-15 (365,700 children).
Northern Ireland’s projected population decline from 2024 to 2049 (1.0%) compares with a mixed picture of population change across the UK and Ireland. While England is projected to have population growth of 5.5% over the 25 years, Scotland’s population is projected to decrease by 1.3%. The population of Wales is projected to remain relatively stable, increasing by 0.3%.
2022 Census based population projections for Ireland, published by the Central Statistics Office, project significant population growth for Ireland. The projections present three potential population growth scenarios based on different assumptions for net migration (high, moderate and low). Under all three scenarios the population of Ireland is projected to grow - by 29.6%, 21.7% and 11.8% respectively over the period from 2022 - 2049.
2. Northern Ireland population projections provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of Northern Ireland, which is used as a common framework for national planning and policy development in areas such as housing, healthcare and education.
3. Projections are the result of applying long-term assumptions based on recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration to the base population. These projections use the Northern Ireland 2024 mid-year population estimates as the base population, these are available at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2024-mid-year-population-estimates-northern-ireland-and-estimates-population-aged-85
With further information on the methodology used to create the projections available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsqmi
4. These projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.
5. National population projections, by age and sex, are produced for the UK, and each of the UK constituent countries, by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of the National Statistician and the Registrars General of Scotland and Northern Ireland. National population projections are calculated in collaboration and agreement with the statistical organisations for Northern Ireland and Scotland (Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency [NISRA], and National Records of Scotland [NRS]). The calculation of population projections for all UK countries at the same time ensures that users of the population projections can work on consistent assumptions.
Full results of the 2024-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and all UK countries, are available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2024based
UK population projection explorer:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/articles/ukpopulationprojectionexplorer/2025-01-28
6. We welcome feedback on the content, format and relevance of this release. Users can send feedback directly to census@nisra.gov.uk.
7. Follow NISRA on https://x.com/NISRA and https://www.facebook.com/nisra.gov.uk.
8. All media inquiries should be directed to the DoF Press Office:
Telephone: 028 9081 6724
Email: dof.pressoffice@finance-ni.gov.uk
9. Further statistical information can be obtained from NISRA Customer Services:
Telephone: 028 9025 5156
E-mail: census@nisra.gov.uk
Responsible Statistician: Catherine O’Donnell