Economic output 11.2% above pre-pandemic level
Date published:
New official statistics in development published today present the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) for Quarter 4 2025 (October to December 2025), providing the latest quarterly measure of economic activity across Northern Ireland.
Key findings
- Economic activity in Northern Ireland increased by 0.2% in real terms over the quarter to Quarter 4 2025.
- Compared to the same quarter last year, Northern Ireland output has increased by 1.6%.
- Northern Ireland's economic output is now 11.2% above the pre-pandemic level recorded in Quarter 4 2019.
- When assessing annualised change (comparing the average of the four quarters to Quarter 4 2025 against the previous four quarters), output has increased by 2.1%.
- The largest contribution to growth this quarter came from the Construction sector (0.6 percentage points), which was partially offset by decreased activity in the Services sector (0.8 percentage points)
- Over the year, growth was driven by positive contributions from the Construction sector (0.5 percentage points), the Public sector (0.5 percentage points), the Production sector (0.4 percentage points), and the Services sector (0.3 percentage points).
- Private sector output increased by 0.1% over the quarter and by 1.5% over the year. Public sector output increased by 0.8% over the quarter and by 2.1% over the year.
- For comparison, UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.1% over the quarter and by 1.0% over the year to Quarter 4 2025, and is now 5.1% above its pre-pandemic level. Note that the measures are not produced on a fully equivalent basis.
- Looking at the longer-term picture, Northern Ireland's economic output is now 34.3% above the series low recorded in Quarter 2 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
About the publication
The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) is a quarterly measure of economic activity in Northern Ireland, broadly equivalent to the output measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It combines a number of existing published quarterly indices including the Index of Services, Index of Production, and Quarterly Construction Enquiry alongside public sector employment data and agricultural output data, weighted using Northern Ireland Gross Value Added (GVA) figures. The bulletin covers four sectors: Construction, Public, Production, and Services. These statistics are official statistics in development, meaning they are still undergoing evaluation and are subject to revision.
Further information:
Read the full report: NICEI publication and tables Q4 2025
Explore the data on the NISRA Data Portal