2022-based population projections for areas within Northern Ireland
Date published:
NISRA has today, 12 February 2026, released 2022-based population projections for the current Local Government Districts (LGDs) which show that the populations in all LGDs are projected to age.
Key points:
Over the ten year projection period to mid-2032, the median age of all LGDs is projected to increase – with the largest increases projected in Causeway Coast and Glens and Newry, Mourne and Down (both 3.9 years). The LGD with the highest median age in mid-2032 is projected to be Ards and North Down, rising from 45.2 years to 48.3 years.
All LGDs are projected to experience increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over, with Newry, Mourne and Down projected to experience the largest proportional increase (32.0 per cent, 10,100 people).
Likewise, all LGDs are projected to experience decreases in the proportion of the population aged 0 to 15 years, with Causeway Coast and Glens projected to experience the largest decline (18.2 per cent, 5,000 children).
By mid-2032, seven of LGDs are projected to experience population growth. The population of Lisburn and Castlereagh is projected to grow the fastest of all the LGDs (6.0 per cent, 8,900 people), almost three times the Northern Ireland growth (2.1 per cent) over the same period.
In contrast, the populations of Causeway Coast and Glens, Derry City and Strabane, and Mid and East Antrim are projected to decline by 3.2 per cent (4,500 people), 1.1 per cent (1,700 people), and 0.6 per cent (800 people) respectively over the decade to mid-2032. The population of Fermanagh and Omagh is projected to remain relatively stable, with a marginal decline over the period.
2. Statistics for the 2022-based Population Projections for areas within Northern Ireland are available at https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2022-based-population-projections-areas-within-northern-ireland.
3. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces national population projections for the UK and constituent countries. Updated projections are usually published every second year, based on a review of the trends affecting fertility, mortality and migration. The national projections can be found at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/population/national-population-projections.
4. Projections are the result of applying long-term assumptions (https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2022-based-population-projections-areas-within-northern-ireland) based on recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration to the base population. These projections use the Northern Ireland 2022 mid-year population estimates as the base population, these are available at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2022-mid-year-population-estimates-northern-ireland. With further information on the methodology used to create the projections available at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2022-based-population-projections-areas-within-northern-ireland.
5. These projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.
6. The latest population projections for areas within England (2022-based) were published the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 24 June 2025 (Subnational population projections for England - Office for National Statistics). National Records Scotland (NRS) published the latest population projections for areas within Scotland (2022-based) on 30 September 2025 (Subnational Population Projections: 2022-based - National Records of Scotland (NRS)). The latest release of population projections for areas within Wales (2022-based) was published by the Welsh Government on 20 November 2025 (Local authority population projections: 2022-based | GOV.WALES).
7. A paper comparing the methodological approaches adopted by producers of population statistics across the UK is available at: Subnational population projections across the UK: a comparison of data sources and methods - Office for National Statistics
We welcome feedback on the content, format and relevance of this release. Users can send feedback directly to census@nisra.gov.uk.
Further statistical information can be obtained from Census Customer Services:
Telephone: 028 9025 5156
E-mail: census@nisra.gov.uk